Andrew's BCS Analysis

We asked my college roomie Andrew for an analysis of BCS bowl possibilities given what we know at this point. Since he has nothing better to do, here's his super detailed writeup. Let's see how close he comes when we get to the end of the season.

Just have to win, baby! Win out, and most projections show that we're in the national championship game, even if Oklahoma St. stays undefeated (and they have some pretty tough games remaining, including Oklahoma, Kansas St. and Texas Tech).

Lose a game, and it all depends on what happens with other teams. I haven't spent a ton of time analyzing this, so I could be off, but I actually think if we only lose to Oregon, we're in good shape to go to the Fiesta Bowl. The good thing is that there aren't 2 non-AQ teams like there were last year (TCU and Boise St.)...that and a lot of teams suck this year.

There are 10 slots in the BCS (NC Game, Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta). 7 are predetermined (2 in the NC Game, 2 in Rose, 1 each in Sugar, Orange and Fiesta), leaving 3 spots.

Let's assume that NC game is LSU vs. OK St., Rose is Oregon vs. Nebraska, Sugar is Alabama or SEC East representative vs. at-large, Orange is Clemson vs. at-large, and Fiesta is Oklahoma vs. at-large.

Boise St.: If they go undefeated, they will be ranked high enough to automatically get a spot.

ACC: We know that the ACC champ will go to the Orange Bowl, and their #2 team will have at least 2 losses (Clemson and Va. Tech each have 1 loss already, and would have to play each other in the ACC championship game). That #2 team won't get a spot ahead of a 1-loss Stanford team, I don't think.

Big East: They suck, so their #2 team is not taking a BCS spot ahead of a 1-loss Stanford team.

Big 10: Interesting - looks like Penn St. is on track to be the runner-up, but they would have 2 losses (I've assumed they lost to Nebraska in the Big 10 championship game). I don't see the Big-10 #2 taking a spot from a 1-loss Stanford team.

Big 12: In my scenario, they already have 2 teams in the BCS (Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.), so they can't get another spot.

SEC: In my scenario, they already have 2 teams in the BCS (LSU/Alabama and SEC East representative (probably Georgia)), so they can't get another spot.

The weird scenario would be if Oregon beats us, then loses to ASU in the Pac-12 championship game. Then ASU is in the Rose, and the BCS is looking at taking either a 1-loss Stanford team or a 2-loss Oregon team that beat us. If they decide on Oregon, we're SOL, since each conference can only have 2 representatives in the BCS.

Of course this presumes that we only lose once. There are lots of potential pitfalls still ahead of us - Oregon St. on the road, Oregon (obviously), a Cal team that I'm sure would like nothing better than to ruin our season, and a pretty talented Notre Dame that has a tendency to make disastrous mistakes.

Ranked #4 in Both Polls

With the win over USC, we scoot up to #4 in the BCS. Still #4 in the AP poll.

Stanford 56 - USC 48 (3OT)

Now 8-0.

WOW! Crazy game. Triple overtime, the Cardinal come from behind to edge out the Trojans.

Fun week at Pacific Rim with Miss Smith (huge USC alumni/fan) leading into the game. Ben setup 5 different Stanford shirts for each day of the week. Each morning, Ben's teacher Mrs. McGowan would send Ben on a "special errand" over to Miss Smith's room, each time with something about Stanford in the delivery.
Pics of the week here.

The boys and I were camping with the Aztecs (Indian Guides) at Del Mar Beach all weekend, but fear not - I had the infrastructure lined up to watch the game from there (5pm ABC prime time game). Babcock's 3G MiFi, feeding my laptop, HDMI out into my 19" office tv, audio out from there to the Bose speakers, slingbox the game from Johnson's home tv to my laptop via WiFi.

Tie ball game, with 3:08 left, Luck throws a pick-6, I was thinking it was over. Should have had more faith. He took them 95 yards in the ensuing drive and scored a TD (this drive included the controversial helmet-to-helmet hit by the USC guy against Owusu, keeping the drive alive on an incomplete 3rd and long). After we scored, USC had a minute or so to drive and score, and had the controversial last play of regulation where they tried to call timeout with no time left (they claim there should be 0.5 seconds). Going to overtime. In OT, both teams scored TDs in their first 2 possessions, then in the 3rd, Stanford went first, scored a TD and had to go for 2, and converted it. Then 2 plays into USC's possession, the full back fumbled into the end zone, where The Cardinal fell on it to win the game. WOOT!

Camping at the beach all weekend with John Johnson and Mark Plasch. Had to throw down a bet. Gave JJ 7.5 points (per the spread), and only betting $1. Turns out Stanford wins, AND covers the 7.5 since they had to go for 2 in the 3rd OT.

Check out College Game Day, from USC Saturday morning. Lee Corso's pick: TREE. (here's the pick)

Corso's Pick: Stanford-USC. Watch more top selected videos about: Stanford Cardinal, ESPN

Mid-week News

Sweet quote from head coach David Shaw re: BCS rankings:

Without realizing it at the time, coach David Shaw might have had the quote of the year three weeks ago when he said "I don't know how you impress a computer."

Apparently 44-point victories aren't the way to go.
http://espn.go.com/blog/stanford-football/post/_/id/2449/bcs-reaction-stanford-2

From "Best and Worst..."

Give #12 The Trophy

http://www.ruleoftree.com/2011/10/24/2509785/stanford-vs-washington-best-and-worst

Crushing Opponents

Saw a stat during Saturday's game:

Stanford has defeated its last 9 opponents by 25 or more points.

First team to do so since Boise State in 2002.

Ranked #4 !!

BCS has us at #6, AP poll has us at #4.
#1 LSU plays #2 Alabama next weekend.

Bowl Predictions as of this week:

• Allstate BCS National Championship Game: Stanford vs. Alabama-LSU winner
• Rose Bowl Game: Oregon vs. Big Ten
• Valero Alamo: Arizona State vs. Big 12
• Bridgepoint Education Holiday: Washington vs. Big 12
• Hyundai Sun: California vs. ACC
• MAACO Las Vegas: Utah vs. Mountain West
• Kraft Fight Hunger: No team vs. ACC or Army
• Gildan New Mexico: No team vs. Big 12

Wisconsin and Oklahoma Lose!

Crazy Hail Mary ending to the Wisconsin / Michigan State game. Bounced off one player, into the next standing on the 1 yard line, and pushes his way across the goal line (only after reply overturned the call of no touchdown on the field). Michigan State upsets #6 Wisconsin.



In the other game, Texas Tech took down #3 Oklahoma - so that's TWO top 5 teams losing in front of The Cardinal! Let's see how the rankings turn out later today.

Washington 21 - Stanford 65

Now 7-0.

This was what most people saw as the first "real test" for the Cardinal this season. A top 25 team. Another sell out (homecoming weekend).

What another display of precision by Andrew Luck and the offense. Pounded the running game down their throat. 2 players with 100+ yards (Taylor 138, Gaffney 117) and Wilkerson with 93. Amazing. Offensive line continues to dominate. Luck only 169 yards and 2 TDs. When we dominate with the running game, I can't help but wonder if it hurts Luck's Heisman chances?

446 yards total rushing!

On the down side, our D let a couple long runs get through, one for a TD. According to roomie Andrew, this was the backup free safety's fault. We have to plug that hole for next weekend against USC.

Oregon Tickets

Ugh. Pulled the trigger this morning and bought tickets to the Oregon @ Stanford game in November. Hauling the whole family up there (driving - long weekend), but only Connor and I are going to the game.

I've been watching StubHub for a month or so, and saw $85 or some such the first time. Looked into other ways to get tix, and those all fell through. So finally, bought them today.

$171 each! We're in the corner, straight from the end zone.

Going with Jane and Dorsey.

The time is still TBD - I have grand visions of ESPN/ABC choosing this as the game of the week. ESPN Game Day from The Farm that morning, and then Brent, Herbie, Erin Andrews on the game for ABC in prime time!? Could be ...

Trio of Tight Ends

Everyone keeps talking about our stud tight ends. Here's a quick summary:

There is also a banner group of tight ends, with the 6-foot-6 redshirt sophomore Zach Ertz, the 6-6 fifth-year senior Coby Fleener and the 6-8 redshirt sophomore Levine Toilolo making up what is considered the country’s best unit. They have combined for 12 touchdown catches, six by Fleener.

Source

First BCS Rankings. #8

This week they released the first BCS rankings of the year. We're #8 in BCS and #7 in AP.

Stanford 44 - Washington State 14

Now 6-0

It was only 10-7 at halftime, and started to wonder if this was a game that would stay close in the 2nd half.  Not so much.

Colorado 7 - Stanford 48

Now 5-0.

Sellout crowd (50,360) at Stanford Stadium for this one.  Colorado is not good.  370 yards by Luck.

UCLA 19 - Stanford 45

Now 4-0.

Dave Hasegawa declined our invite to come over and watch with us, saying that he would get too mad and embarrassed at how bad UCLA.  Classic.  Turns out to be a good call, cuz it wasn't even close.

Luck threw for 227 yards and three touchdowns and padded his Heisman resume with the spectacular one-handed catch, keeping sixth-ranked Stanford perfect with a 45-19 victory over UCLA on Saturday night.

Shaw even allowed Luck to go up to the line of scrimmage in a hurry-up offense at one point and call his own plays.
No script. No questions. Just Luck.

The Catch

Luck handed the ball off to Tyler Gaffney and sprinted out to the right side between the cornerbacks and safeties. Gaffney ran left and flipped the ball to Drew Terrell on a reverse, and the receiver threw to Luck along the far sideline.

Luck made a one-handed catch and tiptoed the sideline with his left foot for a 13-yard reception that officials initially ruled incomplete. After a review, Luck had only the second reception of his career and first since a loss at Arizona on Oct. 17, 2009.

"I'm sure it was incomplete at the next level," said Luck, the projected No. 1 overall pick in April's NFL draft. "Glad we're playing with the one-foot in rule."

The one-handed catch might not have even been the most impressive on the drive.

Coby Fleener snatched a one-handed, 18-yard touchdown pass from Luck to put the Cardinal ahead 7-0 late in the first quarter. That capped a 16-play, 99-yard drive that spanned more than 8 minutes and actually gained 119 total yards because of penalties.

"I knew I had to one-up him," Fleener joked.

Some YouTube videos:

Luck Catch


Fleener Grab