Andrew's BCS Analysis

We asked my college roomie Andrew for an analysis of BCS bowl possibilities given what we know at this point. Since he has nothing better to do, here's his super detailed writeup. Let's see how close he comes when we get to the end of the season.

Just have to win, baby! Win out, and most projections show that we're in the national championship game, even if Oklahoma St. stays undefeated (and they have some pretty tough games remaining, including Oklahoma, Kansas St. and Texas Tech).

Lose a game, and it all depends on what happens with other teams. I haven't spent a ton of time analyzing this, so I could be off, but I actually think if we only lose to Oregon, we're in good shape to go to the Fiesta Bowl. The good thing is that there aren't 2 non-AQ teams like there were last year (TCU and Boise St.)...that and a lot of teams suck this year.

There are 10 slots in the BCS (NC Game, Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta). 7 are predetermined (2 in the NC Game, 2 in Rose, 1 each in Sugar, Orange and Fiesta), leaving 3 spots.

Let's assume that NC game is LSU vs. OK St., Rose is Oregon vs. Nebraska, Sugar is Alabama or SEC East representative vs. at-large, Orange is Clemson vs. at-large, and Fiesta is Oklahoma vs. at-large.

Boise St.: If they go undefeated, they will be ranked high enough to automatically get a spot.

ACC: We know that the ACC champ will go to the Orange Bowl, and their #2 team will have at least 2 losses (Clemson and Va. Tech each have 1 loss already, and would have to play each other in the ACC championship game). That #2 team won't get a spot ahead of a 1-loss Stanford team, I don't think.

Big East: They suck, so their #2 team is not taking a BCS spot ahead of a 1-loss Stanford team.

Big 10: Interesting - looks like Penn St. is on track to be the runner-up, but they would have 2 losses (I've assumed they lost to Nebraska in the Big 10 championship game). I don't see the Big-10 #2 taking a spot from a 1-loss Stanford team.

Big 12: In my scenario, they already have 2 teams in the BCS (Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.), so they can't get another spot.

SEC: In my scenario, they already have 2 teams in the BCS (LSU/Alabama and SEC East representative (probably Georgia)), so they can't get another spot.

The weird scenario would be if Oregon beats us, then loses to ASU in the Pac-12 championship game. Then ASU is in the Rose, and the BCS is looking at taking either a 1-loss Stanford team or a 2-loss Oregon team that beat us. If they decide on Oregon, we're SOL, since each conference can only have 2 representatives in the BCS.

Of course this presumes that we only lose once. There are lots of potential pitfalls still ahead of us - Oregon St. on the road, Oregon (obviously), a Cal team that I'm sure would like nothing better than to ruin our season, and a pretty talented Notre Dame that has a tendency to make disastrous mistakes.